Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks

This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage‐free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by output and inflation risks that are unspanned by (imperfectly correlated with) information about the shape of the yield curve. Our model reveals that, between 1985 and 2007, these risks accounted for a large portion of the variation in forward terms premiums, and there was pronounced cyclical variation in the market prices of level and slope risks.     

THE PROBLEM OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

Suppose that land is communally owned. Every person has theright to hunt, till, or mine the land. This form of ownershipfails to concentrate the cost associated with any person's exerciseof his communal right on that person. If a person seeks to maximizethe value of his communal rights, he will tend to overhunt andoverwork the land because some of the costs of his doing soare borne by others. The stock of game and the richness of thesoil will be diminished too quickly. It is conceivable thatthose who own these rights, i.e. every member of the community,can agree to curtail the rate at which they work the lands ifnegotiating and policing costs are zero... [However,] negotiatingcosts will be large because it is difficult for many personsto reach a mutually satisfactory agreement, especially wheneach hold-out has the right to work the land as fast as he pleases.[Furthermore,] even if an agreement among all can be reached,we must yet take account of the costs of policing the agreement,and these may be large, also. Footnotes ¹ I have benefited greatly from comments made by David Pearceon an earlier draft of this paper.     

Local Does as Local Is: Information Content of the Geography of Individual Investors' Common Stock Investments

Using data on the investments a large number of individual investors made through a discount broker from 1991 to 1996, we find that households exhibit a strong preference for local investments. We test whether this locality bias stems from information or from simple familiarity. The average household generates an additional annualized return of 3.2% from its local holdings relative to its nonlocal holdings, suggesting that local investors can exploit local knowledge. Excess returns to investing locally are even larger among stocks not in the S&P 500 index (firms for which information asymmetries between local and nonlocal investors may be largest).     

Pension disclosures under SFAS No. 87: Theory and evidence*

Abstract. This study analyzes the choices made by 279 firms in response to the opportunity to adopt the new pension accounting standard. Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 87, in 1986 rather than 1987. It tests the influence of political and agency variables and three income-related variables on this accounting choice. The political variables, management compensation contracts, the magnitude of the income effect of adoption, whether the firm was a “bath” firm, and the earnings position of the firm relative to the prior year are all associated with the adoption choice. These results are analyzed further by considering specific debt covenants and by exploring alternate interpretations of the meaning of the change in earnings variable by assessing interactions between it and the political and agency variables. Résumé. L'auteur analyse les choix faits par 279 entreprises par suite de l'option qui leur était offerte d'adopter la nouvelle norme de comptabilisation des régimes de retraite. Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 87, en 1986 plutôt qu'en 1987. Il vérifie l'influence des variables politiques et des variables mandant-mandataire, ainsi que de trois variables se rattachant aux bénéfices, sur ce choix comptable. Chacun des facteurs suivants est associé à l'option d'adoption: variables politiques, contrats de rénumération des cadres, ampleur des conséquences de l'adoption sur les bénéfices, occasion de flambée des bénéfices et bénéfices de l'entreprise par rapport aux bénéfices de l'exercice précédent. Ces résultats font l'objet d'une analyse plus poussée dans laquelle l'auteur tient compte de clauses restrictives particulières et explore d'autres interprétations de la signification de la fluctuation de la variable des bénéfices en évaluant les interactions entre cette fluctuation et les variables politiques ainsi que les variables mandant-mandataire.     

The Dollar, the Oil Price and Policy Divergence

There is currently a clear divergence of policy between the United States, Japan and Germany. With the US in recession and concern growing over the severity of the slump, interest rates have been cut in a move to revive the economy. In contrast Japan and Germany are both experiencing strong growth and monetary policy remains tight to combat inflation. This divergence was seen most clearly when the Federal Reserve Board lowered its discount rate to 6 per cent on 1 February, the day after the Bundesbank had raised its Lombard rate to 9 per cent. With G7 increasingly concerned about domestic factors, less emphasis is placed upon stable exchange rates and as a result the dollar is at an all-time low. The last two G7 communiqués have stressed ‘stability oriented monetary policies’, an ambiguous phrase which fails to define ‘stability’ either in terms of exchange rates, inflation or growth. Thus both the German and Japanese policy of high interest rates to reduce inflation and low US interest rates aimed at stimulating the economy can be termed as ‘stability oriented’. This analysis focuses on these divergent policy responses in two alternative scenarios to the world forecast we presented last month. The first scenario considers what might happen if the Federal Reserve Board were to stimulate the US economy by further cuts in interest rates, whilst Japanese and German rates were unchanged in the face of inflationary pressures. This case may be relevant if the recent US loosening of monetary policy is not sufficient to encourage growth because of a ‘credit crunch’, so that a more expansionary policy is required by the Fed. As a consequence, policy diverges further and the dollar weakens. The second scenario focuses upon a reduction in inflationary pressures in Japan and Germany brought about by an oil price fall. In this case we assume that US policy is already loose enough to avoid a prolonged recession, but that German and Japanese monetary policy is relaxed as inflationary forces recede. In this case policies converge. Each scenario thus concentrates on one of !he two features which are causing the policy divergence amongst G3 countries: recession in the US, inflation in Germany and Japan.     

THE DEFECTIVE DESIGN OF FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE

Deposit insurance funds, especially the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, are currently in visible trouble. Two central defects of the existing deposit insurance system are identified: (1) mispricing of the insurance premiums and (2) incentives for both the industry and the insurance agencies to postpone recognizing and realizing losses.
Insurance premiums are mispriced because they are assessed at the same rate for all institutions, which creates a bias for banks to take greater risks. Practical difficulties of setting an appropriate risk-based premium for each bank are real but not necessarily insurmountable. In particular, the sale by the bank of unsecured and uninsured debt could provide a market measure of default risk, under a given failure rule.
The choice of a failure rule is also a critical matter. Current failure rules are poorly defined and permit insolvent institutions to continue in operation. Specifying a market value test of insolvency in the statutes would be helpful, but it would have to be supported by market-value accounting requirements and stronger pressures on banking authorities not to defer action.